How Many Registered Voters Voted For Trump

American voter group

In the U.s., Sanders–Trump voters, also known as Bernie–Trump voters, are Americans who voted for Bernie Sanders in the 2016 or 2020 Democratic Political party presidential primaries (or both), but who after voted for Republican Political party nominee Donald Trump in the full general ballot. In the 2016 ballot, these voters comprised an estimated 12% of Sanders supporters.^[1] In dissimilarity, more 70% of Sanders supporters voted for Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton.^[2]

The extent to which these voters have been decisive in Trump'due south victory, and their effect on the 2020 ballot, have been a subject area of argue. Compared to other Sanders voters, these Sanders–Trump voters are less likely to identify as Democrats and take more than conservative views on social and racial problems. They tend to be older and are more than likely to exist white.

2016 ballot [edit]

Studies [edit]

The Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), an ballot survey of about 50,000 people, found that 12% of Sanders voters voted for Trump in 2016.^[3] In the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the number of Sanders-Trump voters was more than than two times Trump's margin of victory in those states.^[4] Because of this, some analysts, such equally Economist information journalist One thousand. Elliott Morris, take argued that these voters had a disproportionately big impact on the 2016 ballot.^[one] ^[5] Others, including political scientist Brian Schaffner, who served as a co-Principal Investigator in the CCES survey,^[6] accept said that Trump's margin of victory was pocket-sized enough that Sanders-Trump voters were but i voting bloc out of many that could take decided the outcome, and that "defections" between a primary and a general election are quite common.^[two] ^[3]

The 2016 VOTER survey conducted by YouGov, which interviewed viii,000 respondents in July and December 2016, found that 12% of those who preferred Sanders in the primary preferred Trump in the general election. The RAND Presidential Election Console Survey, which interviewed the same group of effectually 3,000 respondents six times during the entrada, plant that six% of those who reported supporting Sanders in March reported supporting Trump in November. Unlike the CCES survey, these two surveys did non validate the turnout of those surveyed.^[one] A May 2016 poll conducted by ABC News and The Washington Postal service showed that 20% of Sanders voters supported Trump, while another ABC/Washington Post poll a few days before the general election showed 8% of Sanders supporters intending to vote for Trump.^[7]

Analysis [edit]

In an interview with Vocalisation, Schaffner highlighted the fact that Sanders-Trump voters were much less likely to identify as Democrats than Sanders voters who voted for Clinton or a third-party candidate.^[two] According to Schaffner, about half of the voting bloc identified themselves every bit Republicans or independents.^[4] Data from the VOTER survey showed that only 35% of Sanders-Trump voters voted for Democratic incumbent Barack Obama in the 2012 election; in contrast, 95% of Sanders-Clinton voters voted for Obama in 2012.^[ane]

Compared to typical Democratic Party voters, Sanders-Trump voters were much more than conservative on racial and social problems. Over 40% of Sanders-Trump voters disagreed that white people have advantages, compared to less than x% of Sanders voters who voted for Clinton.^[2] Compared to the boilerplate Sanders voter, Sanders-Trump voters tend to be white and older. The CCES survey showed that just betwixt 17% and eighteen% of Sanders-Trump voters identified themselves equally ideologically liberal, with the residual either identifying as moderate or conservative.^[ii] In the VOTER survey, Sanders-Trump voters rated minority groups less favorably than Sanders-Clinton voters; this included Latinos, Muslims and LGBT people.^[1] According to both the CCES and VOTER surveys, Sanders-Trump voters' views on trade policy are largely similar to typical Democrats, despite Sanders' relative opposition to gratis trade deals.^[1] ^[2]

Jeff Stein of Vocalization suggested that many Sanders-Trump voters may take been Reagan Democrats who were white and pro-wedlock.^[two] Political scientist John M. Sides suggested that many Sanders-Trump voters were unlikely to be inclined to support Clinton in the kickoff place.^[1] Writing in RealClearPolitics, Tim Chapman, executive managing director of conservative advocacy group Heritage Action, suggested that both Trump and Sanders had stiff populist entreatment, especially to working-course voters in the heartland, despite their starkly different policies.^[8] In 2020, Schaffner suggested that Sanders' entreatment to Sanders-Trump voters in 2016 was due to his outsider status, his populist policies, and his targeting of issues which affected groups of people Trump attempted to court in his 2016 campaign.^[4]

2020 election [edit]

Sanders-Trump voters were over again cited as a potential deciding factor in the 2020 United States presidential election. According to a February 2020 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, near vii% of respondents who said they were enthusiastic virtually or comfy with Sanders in the 2020 election voted for Trump in 2016. In March 2020, Schaffner suggested that if Sanders were the Autonomous nominee in the 2020 full general election, Sanders would exist able to target some but non all of those who voted Sanders-Trump in 2016. Philippe Reines, a longtime Clinton adviser, suggested that whether this group of voters would vote for Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the general ballot depended on Sanders' efforts to demonstrate his support for Biden.^[4]

Between pre-ballot forecasters, there was no consensus on the potential consequence of Sanders-Trump voters on the 2020 election. In March 2019, Grace Sparks of CNN suggested that Sanders-Trump voters were unlikely to be significant in 2020, pointing to early polling which showed lilliputian overlap in support between Sanders and Trump.^[vii] According to a March 2020 ABC News/Washington Post poll, 15% of Sanders voters (corresponding to 6% of leaned Democrats) planned to vote for Trump, while fourscore% planned to vote for Biden.^[nine] A March 2020 Morning Consult poll showed that although Sanders supporters were less likely to vote for Biden than the boilerplate Democrat, they were likewise less probable to "defect" to Trump compared to in 2016.^[ten] Citing exit polls on the 2020 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary, Washington Examiner columnist Timothy P. Carney suggested that Sanders voters were demographically similar to Trump voters.^[eleven]

Encounter also [edit]

List of Democrats who opposed the Hillary Clinton 2016 presidential entrada
Reagan Democrat
Obama–Trump voters

References [edit]

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^thou Sides, John (August 24, 2017). "Did enough Bernie Sanders supporters vote for Trump to cost Clinton the election?". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on Oct 3, 2020.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g Stein, Jeff (Baronial 24, 2017). "The Bernie voters who defected to Trump, explained past a political scientist". Vocalization. Archived from the original on October iv, 2020. Retrieved Oct 4, 2020.
^ ^a ^b Kurtzleben, Danielle (Baronial 24, 2017). "Here'due south How Many Bernie Sanders Supporters Ultimately Voted For Trump". NPR. Archived from the original on Oct 3, 2020. Retrieved October 4, 2020.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d "Could Sanders voters help Trump win the White House over again?". NBC News. Archived from the original on October 3, 2020. Retrieved October iv, 2020.
^ G. Elliott Morris [@gelliottmorris] (August 23, 2017). "Sanders -> Trump voters… WI: 51k MI: 47k PA: 116k Trump win margin… WI: 22k MI: 10k PA: 44k ¯\_(ツ)_/¯" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Ansolabehere, Stephen (Harvard University); Schaffner, Brian F. (Academy Of Massachusetts Amherst) (2017), CCES Mutual Content, 2016, Harvard Dataverse, doi:10.7910/dvn/gdf6z0, archived from the original on October 29, 2020, retrieved Oct iv, 2020 {{commendation}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
^ ^a ^b Sparks, Grace (March 5, 2019). "The Trump-Bernie voters from 2016 are nearly non-existent now". CNN. Archived from the original on October ten, 2020. Retrieved Oct four, 2020.
^ Chapman, Tim (March 7, 2019). "The Rise of the Trump-Sanders Voter". RealClearPolitics. Archived from the original on September 7, 2020. Retrieved October 4, 2020.
^ Sinozich, Sofi (March 29, 2020). "Biden consolidates back up, but trails badly in enthusiasm: Poll". ABC News. Archived from the original on October 4, 2020. Retrieved October iv, 2020.
^ "Sanders Supporters Look Less Probable to Defect This Year Than in 2016". Morning Consult. March 17, 2020. Archived from the original on August 17, 2020. Retrieved Oct 4, 2020.
^ Carney, Timothy P. (March 1, 2020). "The Sanders/Trump voters: No church, no degree, yes to revolution". Washington Examiner. Archived from the original on March 10, 2020. Retrieved October 4, 2020.